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Trendspotting: A Top 100 List of Things to Watch in 2011 from @annmmack

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January 05, 2011

JWT: 100 Things to Watch in 2011

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This is my own thinking and writing. You are free to share and copy with attribution

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I participated in a fantastic talk in May 2022 on “Ideological Polarization and Extremism in the 21st Century” led by Jonathan Leader Maynard who is a Lecturer in International Politics at King's College London. The purpose here focuses on a though I took from Jonathan's talk and his new book, “ Ideology and Mass Killing: The Radicalized Security Politics of Genocides and Deadly Atrocities ,” published by Oxford University Press. When I started thinking about writing about Peak Paradox, it was driven by a desire to answer a core question I asked myself, individuals, boards and teams; “ what are we/ you optimising for? ” . It has become my go-to question when I want to explore the complexity of decision making and team dynamics as the timeframe (tactical vs strategic) is determined by the person answering the question. Ultimately individuals in a team, which give the team its capabilities, are driven by different purposes and ideals, which means incentives work differently

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Can models help us navigate uncertainty?

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Probably not but at there end there are 10 ways to prevent assumptions becoming culture Post the 2008 global financial crisis, the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, said in an opening address at the ECB Central Banking Conference Frankfurt, 18 November 2010, “ As a policymaker during the crisis, I found the available models of limited help. In fact, I would go further: In the face of the crisis, we felt abandoned by conventional tools .” The Gap Many in executive and leadership positions have faced for a while a feeling that our models, simulations and computations are ill-suited to addressing big, messy, complicated real-world problems. There is a gap between the reality we read and measure today and the model that predicted today a short period ago. Since we have yet to create new models and continue to utilise the same ideals, we know there is a gap between prediction and reality, and that gap is leading to poor decisions, which make us see a bigger g

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