Showing posts with the label model

Can models help us navigate uncertainty?

Probably not but at there end there are 10 ways to prevent assumptions becoming culture   Post the 2008 global financial crisis, the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, said in an opening address at the ECB Central Banking Conference Frankfurt, 18 November 2010, “ As a policymaker during the crisis, I found the available models of limited help. In fact, I would go further: In the face of the crisis, we felt abandoned by conventional tools .” The Gap Many in executive and leadership positions have faced for a while a feeling that our models, simulations and computations are ill-suited to addressing big, messy, complicated real-world problems. There is a gap between the reality we read and measure today and the model that predicted today a short period ago.   Since we have yet to create new models and continue to utilise the same ideals, we know there is a gap between prediction and reality, and that gap is leading to poor decisions, which make us see a bigger g