Showing posts from April, 2020

Stop thinking about recovery and start searching for the new direction.

Innotribe 2019: London The future of money What is money ? Is money a coin or currency that you have in your pocket? Is it the balance on your current account? Could money be the value of your stocks, shares or bonds? Or is money information and is information more than memory? How about M1, M2, M3 and M0. There is no simple definition, but money has characteristics and a future. Thinking about the future of money offers two important insights. If the future of money is faster, quicker and cheaper the focus will be on efficiency and effectiveness in back office admin, operations and engineering/ tech. There are a myriad of startups and internal projects focussed on this already. The enormous effort and VC backing says this is a future of money. As money becomes more digital, conceptually this is more than bits version of the atoms, it introduces new characteristics of money. Traditional money has known properties/ characteristics which are well documented (Fu

Leadership in a hostile, VUCA, environment

Patterns of leadership in troubled times Skills for leadership are natural, learned and require continual refinement. New skills are forged in times of crisis. Conversely leadership as a position starts at a point in time, often when something new is started.   On the assumption that positional leadership starts when you start a company, division or something new, it is a truism that a leadership team will inevitably change over time, as the needs of the business change. Typically a founder will have a bias towards technology, science, innovation or marketing and will have created a new widget for someone who did not know they needed it. Such is the demand for growth that a founding skillset (innovation) has to quickly give way to finance, legal and management as scale is needed to satisfy stakeholder inquisitions. Leadership who leads knows that more (new) revenues are needed and will steer a team back towards skills that bring in creativity and innovation, leading

Are we grieving for the old model? Exploring why we are tired.

Exploring why are we so tired using the framework of the unknown:unknown Summary  COVID19 is not a Black Swan event and it was predicted as far back as 2015 if not earlier. This article ponders why we are so mentally exhausted and how we should react next. It argues that we need leadership and structure at this time to ensure that this crisis does not become destructive to ourselves individually or collectively as a society. As leaders we need to hear, listen and accept a wider range of views, as we all search for a new “normal life”. As individuals, we need to take care of ourselves and keep a check on our level of exhaustion, which in this case is processing, learning and thinking exhaustion. It is mental and emotional exhaustion and not a physiological one. There is nothing we can do to process and make sense quicker, it will take time and we have to accept it and find the learnings and value in it. Sensemaking of our response to the fear of systemic risk and what i

Revisiting the matrix of unknown : unknown

Revisiting unknown : unknown How are we responding to the fear of systemic risk and what is next? The matrix of known:unknown has been around since 1955 and is a super tool which helps map our understanding of risk for scenario planning and game theories. It has been updated numerous times and remains a current and useful tool. Whilst it definitely can help us think about “data” and where to focus and allocate limited resources, does it help with our response to COVID19? Applying the framework to our personal and collective responses, may help us understand where we are up to, in terms of our own understanding to COV19. The axes are, “it is known:unknown to ME” and “it is known:unknown to YOU.” Starting from the bottom left, a deep fear of the unknown. Sometime in Dec 2019 the majority of the world started to become aware of a new virus. For you and me this was firmly in the quadrant of unknown:unknown. Neither of us had any data on the virus, its effects on humans, the ramifi

How should new risk (COVID19) inform investment decisions?

Should our policies and processes be reviewed/ challenged or should we depend on them more than ever? This short article walks through a framework to support complex investment decisions, especially during turbulent times. It is possible to make excellent returns (on investment) in all quadrants, don’t be fooled into thinking that one quadrant is the best (or better). Each quadrant has unique characteristics; the flow is to go through each one in turn, starting top right. However, before that it is worth examining the axes. The horizontal axis (X) is “how a decision is made” The extremes of the X-axis extends are Thought(ful) and Pain(ful). A thought(ful) decision means a) you are making an investment decision based on your experience and gut instinct, there is deep analysis and the key is that you have time to consider the options and consequences. b) The purchase decision (demand) for products and service at this extreme is slow and considered. You have time and th