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Showing posts with the label viewpoint

Can models help us navigate uncertainty?

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Probably not but at there end there are 10 ways to prevent assumptions becoming culture   Post the 2008 global financial crisis, the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, said in an opening address at the ECB Central Banking Conference Frankfurt, 18 November 2010, “ As a policymaker during the crisis, I found the available models of limited help. In fact, I would go further: In the face of the crisis, we felt abandoned by conventional tools .” The Gap Many in executive and leadership positions have faced for a while a feeling that our models, simulations and computations are ill-suited to addressing big, messy, complicated real-world problems. There is a gap between the reality we read and measure today and the model that predicted today a short period ago.   Since we have yet to create new models and continue to utilise the same ideals, we know there is a gap between prediction and reality, and that gap is leading to poor decisions, which make us see a bigger g

Love this - but let's not pretend we all agree on what or why we are doing something.

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The future isn’t what it used to be: Here's how strategic foresight can help ; it is a high-quality, well-written, thoughtful piece from WEF.  It is presented by Olivier Woeffray, Practice Lead, Strategic Intelligence, World Economic Forum and Paulo Carvalho, Executive Director, MBA, Lisbon School of Economics & Management. The truth of the opening statement set the scene, “ [We are moving] from a world of relative predictability … to a world with more fragility – greater uncertainty, higher economic volatility, geopolitical confrontations .” However, something niggled me.  I love the future system and exponential thinking; however, I was wondering if the Venn diagram was the right one, but that took me off into thinking about the presentation, not the content.  My gut said I was missing something, but I could add all my initial objections into the future or systems thinking buckets. I was warming to the model and indeed feel it is a positive and valuable contribution, but it

Chaos and the abyss

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This read describes the space between chaos and the abyss, where we find ourselves when we allow machines to make decisions without safeguarding collective criticism or realise they can change our minds.   ----- There is a reality that we are not forced to recognise our collective ethical and own moral bias without others. However, these biases are the basis of our decision-making, so asking a machine to " take an unelected position of trust " and make a decision on our collective behalf creates a space we should explore as we move from human criticism to machine control. Machines are making decisions.    Automation is incredibly powerful and useful, and we continue to learn to reduce bias in automated decision-making by exploring data sets and understanding the outcomes by testing for bias.  As we continue testing, iterating and learning about using past data for future decisions, we expose many of our human frailties and faults.   The decisions we ask machines to make toda

We need more unethical morals!

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I explore ethics, morals and integrity in the context of decision-making. This piece explores the void between ethics and morals and why we need this place to exist because it allows us to explore the reason why unethical morals force us to new thinking. The difference in definition between Ethics and Morals Definition : Ethics are guiding principles of conduct of an individual or group. Definition : Morals are principles on which one’s judgments of right and wrong are based. Therefore an important difference between ethics and morals is that ethics are relatively uniform within a group, whereas morals are individual and heavily influenced by local culture and beliefs. How to change someone's mind is a super article from Manfred F. R. Kets de Vries at Insead.  It is important because if we want more people in the moral group, we need those with different ethics to change. And if we want to update our morals, we need to be able to change our ethics. In Manfred’s article, I believ

Why does fear fill the gap?

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In that moment of panic, we forget to reflect on what type of gap this is and why it has been filled with fear. Leadership is a recognition of the gaps, that not all gaps are the same and how to prevent fear being the first response. Image source: Susan David, Ph.D (love her work) Fear and Gaps  Fear is an unpleasant emotion caused by the immediate or expected threat of danger, pain, or harm, but it is also so much more.  We know fear sells in terms of marketing.  We understand FOMO (fear of missing out) and the fear of failure (FOF) are significant drivers. We are aware that fear produces a unique reaction in the body driven from the gut ahead of the brain ( Antonio Damasio research ). Fear is a stimuli but is subjective and how fear is perceived is different for everyone. Different types of fear spread at different speeds. Brands and the media use fear and to create headlines and force change.  COP27 and climate change agenda are not adverse to utilising this insight. We should be